There is no such thing as "international terrorism".
http://zope.gush-shalom.org/home/en/channels/avnery/1448673709
To declare war on "international terrorism" is nonsense. Politicians who do so are either fools or cynics, and probably both.
Terrorism is a weapon. Like cannon. We would laugh at somebody who declares war on "international artillery". A cannon belongs to an army, and serves the aims of that army. The cannon of one side fire against the cannon of the other.
Terrorism is a method of operation. It is often used by oppressed peoples, including the French Resistance to the Nazis in WW II. We would laugh at anyone who declared war on “international resistance”.
Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian military thinker, famously said that "war is the continuation of politics by other means". If he had lived with us today, he might have said: "Terrorism is a continuation of policy by other means."
Terrorism means, literally, to frighten the victims into surrendering to the will of the terrorist.
Terrorism is a weapon. Generally it is the weapon of the weak. Of those who have no atom bombs, like the ones which were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which terrorized the Japanese into surrender. Or the aircraft which destroyed Dresden in the (vain) attempt to frighten the Germans into giving up.
Since most of the groups and countries using terrorism have different aims, often contradicting each other, there is nothing "international" about it. Each terrorist campaign has a character of its own. Not to mention the fact that nobody considers himself (or herself) a terrorist, but rather a fighter for God, Freedom or Whatever.
(I cannot restrain myself from boasting that long ago I invented the formula: "One man's terrorist is the other man's freedom fighter".)
MANY ORDINARY Israelis felt deep satisfaction after the Paris events. "Now those bloody Europeans feel for once what we feel all the time!"
Binyamin Netanyahu, a diminutive thinker but a brilliant salesman, has hit on the idea of inventing a direct link between jihadist terrorism in Europe and Palestinian terrorism in Israel and the occupied territories.
It is a stroke of genius: if they are one and the same, knife-wielding Palestinian teenagers and Belgian devotees of ISIS, then there is no Israeli-Palestinian problem, no occupation, no settlements. Just Muslim fanaticism. (Ignoring, by the way, the many Christian Arabs in the secular Palestinian "terrorist" organizations.)
This has nothing to do with reality. Palestinians who want to fight and die for Allah go to Syria. Palestinians – both religious and secular – who shoot, knife or run over Israeli soldiers and civilians these days want freedom from the occupation and a state of their own.
This is such an obvious fact that even a person with the limited IQ of our present cabinet ministers could grasp it. But if they did, they would have to face very unpleasant choices concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
So let's stick to the comfortable conclusion: they kill us because they are born terrorists, because they want to meet the promised 72 virgins in paradise, because they are anti-Semites. So, as Netanyahu happily forecasts, we shall "live forever by our sword".
TRAGIC AS the results of each terrorist event may be, there is something absurd about the European reaction to recent events.
The height of absurdiocy was reached in Brussels, when a lone terrorist on the run paralyzed an entire capital city for days without a single shot being fired. It was the ultimate success of terrorism in the most literal sense: using fear as a weapon.
But the reaction in Paris was not much better. The number of victims of the atrocity was large, but similar to the number killed on the roads in France every couple of weeks. It was certainly far smaller than the number of victims of one hour of World War II. But rational thought does not count. Terrorism works on the perception of the victims.
It seems incredible that ten mediocre individuals, with a few primitive weapons, could cause world-wide panic. But it is a fact. Bolstered by the mass media, which thrive on such events, local terrorist acts turn themselves nowadays into world-wide threats. The modern media, by their very nature, are the terrorist's best friend. Terror could not flourish without them.
The next best friend of the terrorist is the politician. It is almost impossible for a politician to resist the temptation to ride on the wave of panic. Panic creates "national unity", the dream of every ruler. Panic creates the longing for a "strong leader". This is a basic human instinct.
Francois Hollande is a typical example. A mediocre yet shrewd politician, he seized the opportunity to pose as a leader. "C'est la guerre!" he declared, and whipped up a national frenzy. Of course this is no "guerre". Not World War III. Just a terrorist attack by a hidden enemy. Indeed, one of the facts disclosed by these events is the incredible foolishness of the political leaders all around. They do not understand the challenge. They react to imagined threats and ignore the real ones. They do not know what to do. So they do what comes naturally: make speeches, convene meetings and bomb somebody (no matter who and what for).
Not understanding the malady, their remedy is worse than the disease itself. Bombing causes destruction, destruction creates new enemies who thirst for revenge. It is a direct collaboration with the terrorists.
It was a sad spectacle to see all these world leaders, the commanders of powerful nations, running around like mice in a maze, meeting, speechifying, uttering nonsensical statements, totally unable to deal with the crisis.
THE PROBLEM is indeed far more complicated than simple minds would believe, because of an unusual fact: the enemy this time is not a nation, not a state, not even a real territory, but an undefined entity: an idea, a state of mind, a movement that does have a territorial base of sorts but is not a real state.
This is not a completely unprecedented phenomenon: more than a hundred years ago, the anarchist movement committed terrorist acts all over the place without having a territorial base at all. And 900 years ago a religious sect without a country, the Assassins (a corruption of the Arabic word for "hashish users"), terrorized the Muslim world.
I don't know how to fight the Islamic State (or rather Non-State) effectively. I strongly believe that nobody knows. Certainly not the nincompoops who man (and woman) the various governments.
I am not sure that even a territorial invasion would destroy this phenomenon. But even such an invasion seems unlikely. The Coalition of the Unwilling put together by the US seems disinclined to put "boots on the ground". The only forces who could try – the Iranians and the Syrian government army – are hated by the US and its local allies.
Indeed, if one is looking for an example of total disorientation, bordering on lunacy, it is the inability of the US and the European powers to choose between the Assad-Iran-Russia axis and the IS-Saudi-Sunni camp. Add the Turkish-Kurdish problem, the Russian-Turkish animosity and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the picture is still far from complete.
(For history-lovers, there is something fascinating about the reemergence of the centuries-old struggle between Russia and Turkey in this new setting. Geography trumps everything else, after all.)
It has been said that war is far too important to leave to the generals. The present situation is far too complicated to leave to the politicians. But who else is there?
ISRAELIS BELIEVE (as usual) that we can teach the world. We know terrorism. We know what to do.
But do we?
For weeks now, Israelis have lived in a panic. For lack of a better name, it is called "the wave of terror". Every day now, two, three, four youngsters, including 13-year old children, attack Israelis with knives or run them over with cars, and are generally shot dead on the spot. Our renowned army tries everything, including draconian reprisals against the families and collective punishment of villages, without avail.
These are individual acts, often quite spontaneous, and therefore it is well-nigh impossible to prevent them. It is not a military problem. The problem is political, psychological.
Netanyahu tries to ride this wave like Hollande and company. He cites the Holocaust (likening a 16-year old boy from Hebron to a hardened SS officer at Auschwitz) and talks endlessly about anti-Semitism.
All in order to obliterate one glaring fact: the occupation with its daily, indeed hourly and minutely, chicanery of the Palestinian population. Some government ministers don't even hide anymore that the aim is to annex the West Bank and eventually drive out the Palestinian people from their homeland.
There is no direct connection between IS terrorism around the world and the Palestinian national struggle for statehood. But if they are not solved, in the end the problems will merge – and a far more powerful IS will unite the Muslim world, as Saladin once did, to confront us, the new Crusaders.
If I were a believer, I would whisper: God forbid.
giovedì 3 dicembre 2015
venerdì 20 novembre 2015
US Marine WANTS YOU to demand .01% criminal psychopaths’ arrests
8-minute video: US Marine WANTS YOU to demand .01% criminal psychopaths’ arrests for obvious War Crimes
Posted on November 15, 2015 by Carl Herman
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/11/8-minute-video-us-marine-wants-you-to-demand-01-criminal-psychopaths-arrests-for-obvious-war-crimes.html
With another possible false flag event in Paris to initiate more unlawful war on Syria, former US Marine Ken O’Keefe models the voice all of us should have to end .01%’s War Crimes in this 8-minute video from Time To Wake Up:http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/11/8-minute-video-us-marine-wants-you-to-demand-01-criminal-psychopaths-arrests-for-obvious-war-crimes.html
Ken’s factual claims are verifiable with Emperor’s New Clothes ease:
- US military are trained to refuse obvious unlawful orders, with officers authorized to arrest those who issue them (there are no lawful orders for unlawful War of Aggression). All Americans in military and law enforcement, and many in government, have Oaths to “defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic.”
- The crime of US .01% “leadership” is indeed best described as treason: an attack upon our military by lying them into illegal invasion of foreign lands, and attack upon our very definition of being American: our Constitution.
- Israel’s armed attacks, invasions, and military siege on Gaza are very obviously unlawful. As typical in history, Israel’s government blames the victim as they kill and destroy more and more while taking more and more land.
- US/UK/Israel collaboration to destroy Gaza and much of the Middle East are crimes of Genocide (intentional death of a targeted group) and Crimes Against Humanity (intentional policy of attack).
- Presidents Obama and Bush, along with US Congress members, created executive orders, NDAA 2012, and the 2006 Military Commissions Act that violates fundamental Constitutional guaranteed rights to claim to “authorize” seizure of any person dictated by “leadership” as an “enemy,” and seize any resource for “national security.” The very obvious solution is to arrest the two presidents and leaders of Congress.
- Americans have lost nearly all rights lawfully guaranteed in the US Bill of Rights within the US Constitution. This is Orwellian inversion of our guaranteed limited government under law.
- America is feared in global polling as the greatest threat to world peace.
- Of 248 armed conflicts since WW2, the US started 201 (81%).
- These US-started armed attacks have killed ~30 million and counting; 90% of these deaths are innocent children, the elderly and ordinary working civilian women and men.
- The US has war-murdered more than Hitler’s Nazis.
- .01% corporate media is again exposed for hiring weapons manufacturers’ employees to sell unlawful war on Syria to television viewers: 22 different men claimed as “experts” without disclosing they work for businesses that sell the very weapons that would be used on Syria.
- Syria is the latest target after ongoing sales pitches to do Iran failed.
The term, psychopath, is the most accurate I have to describe the .01’s behavior of a veneer of social acceptability attempting to hide viciously destructive actions. This 5-minute video helps prove this point.
Taking care of US infrastructure rather than engage in Wars of Aggression also has very obvious solutions: banking and monetary reform to fully invest in infrastructure that return more economic output than cost, provide employment, upgrade decaying infrastructure, and all with debt-free money to be created and directly pay for this advancement. At-cost and in-house credit can create what we use for money as debt (negative number) to manage total money supply. These two policies nearly instantly provide ~$1,000,000 to every US household: astounding, game-changing, and easily verifiable as objective verification of simple math used for counting. (and here, here).
We want You to be Americans: those with intellectual integrity and moral courage to understand and live the literal definition of America: a limited government under our Constitution.
Do you care enough to live what your heart and mind calls you to think, speak, and take action?
As guests on this beautiful and dominated planet, we can only do so much as humans. And that said, we’ll discover together what is possible as we move forward in good-faith effort.
**
Note: I make all factual assertions as a National Board Certified Teacher of US Government, Economics, and History, with all economics factual claims receiving zero refutation since I began writing in 2008 among Advanced Placement Macroeconomics teachers on our discussion board, public audiences of these articles, and international conferences. I invite readers to empower their civic voices with the strongest comprehensive facts most important to building a brighter future. I challenge professionals, academics, and citizens to add their voices for the benefit of all Earth’s inhabitants.
**
Carl Herman is a National Board Certified Teacher of US Government, Economics, and History; also credentialed in Mathematics. He worked with both US political parties over 18 years and two UN Summits with the citizen’s lobby, RESULTS, for US domestic and foreign policy to end poverty. He can be reached at Carl_Herman@post.harvard.edu
Note: Examiner.com has blocked public access to my articles on their site (and from other whistleblowers), so some links in my previous work are blocked. If you’d like to search for those articles other sites may have republished, use words from the article title within the blocked link. Or, go to http://archive.org/web/, paste the expired link into the box, click “Browse history,” then click onto the screenshots of that page for each time it was screen-shot and uploaded to webarchive. I’ll update as “hobby time” allows; including my earliest work from 2009 to 2011 (blocked author pages: here, here).
sabato 14 novembre 2015
42 Documented False Flag Attacks By Governments Since 1931
42 Documented False Flag Attacks By Governments Since 1931
www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/02/41-admitted-false-flag-attacks.html
Leaders Throughout History Have Acknowledged False Flags
www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/02/41-admitted-false-flag-attacks.html
There
are many documented false flag attacks, where a government carries out a
terror attack … and then falsely blames its enemy for political
purposes.
In the following 42 instances, officials in the
government which carried out the attack (or seriously proposed an
attack) admits to it, either orally or in writing:
(1) Japanese troops set off a small explosion on
a train track in 1931, and falsely blamed it on China in order to
justify an invasion of Manchuria. This is known as the “Mukden Incident”
or the “Manchurian Incident”. The Tokyo International Military Tribunal
found: “Several of the participators in the plan, including Hashimoto
[a high-ranking Japanese army officer], have on various occasions
admitted their part in the plot and have stated that the object of the ‘Incident’ was to afford an excuse for the occupation of Manchuria by the Kwantung Army ….” And see this.
(2) A major with the Nazi SS admitted at the
Nuremberg trials that – under orders from the chief of the Gestapo – he
and some other Nazi operatives faked attacks on their own people and
resources which they blamed on the Poles, to justify the invasion of
Poland.
(3) Nazi general Franz Halder also testified at
the Nuremberg trials that Nazi leader Hermann Goering admitted to
setting fire to the German parliament building in 1933, and then falsely
blaming the communists for the arson.
(4) Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev admitted in
writing that the Soviet Union’s Red Army shelled the Russian village of
Mainila in 1939 – while blaming the attack on Finland – as a basis for
launching the “Winter War” against Finland. Russian president Boris
Yeltsin agreed that Russia had been the aggressor in the Winter War.
(5) The Russian Parliament, current Russian
president Putin and former Soviet leader Gorbachev all admit that Soviet
leader Joseph Stalin ordered his secret police to execute 22,000 Polish
army officers and civilians in 1940, and falsely blame it on the Nazis.
(6) The British government admits that – between
1946 and 1948 – it bombed 5 ships carrying Jews attempting to flee the
Holocaust to seek safety in Palestine, set up a fake group called
“Defenders of Arab Palestine”, and then had the psuedo-group falsely
claim responsibility for the bombings (and see this, this and this).
(7) Israel admits that in 1954, an Israeli
terrorist cell operating in Egypt planted bombs in several buildings,
including U.S. diplomatic facilities, then left behind “evidence”
implicating the Arabs as the culprits (one of the bombs detonated
prematurely, allowing the Egyptians to identify the bombers, and several
of the Israelis later confessed) (and see this and this).
(8) The CIA admits that it hired Iranians in the
1950′s to pose as Communists and stage bombings in Iran in order to
turn the country against its democratically-elected prime minister.
(9) The Turkish Prime Minister admitted that the
Turkish government carried out the 1955 bombing on a Turkish consulate
in Greece – also damaging the nearby birthplace of the founder of modern
Turkey – and blamed it on Greece, for the purpose of inciting and
justifying anti-Greek violence.
(10) The British Prime Minister admitted to his defense
secretary that he and American president Dwight Eisenhower approved a
plan in 1957 to carry out attacks in Syria and blame it on the Syrian
government as a way to effect regime change.
(11) The former Italian Prime Minister, an
Italian judge, and the former head of Italian counterintelligence admit
that NATO, with the help of the Pentagon and CIA, carried out terror
bombings in Italy and other European countries in the 1950s and blamed
the communists, in order to rally people’s support for their governments
in Europe in their fight against communism. As one participant in this
formerly-secret program stated: “You had to attack civilians, people,
women, children, innocent people, unknown people far removed from any
political game. The reason was quite simple. They were supposed to force
these people, the Italian public, to turn to the state to ask for
greater security” (and see this) (Italy and other European countries
subject to the terror campaign had joined NATO before the bombings
occurred). And watch this BBC special. They also allegedly carried out
terror attacks in France, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, the
Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the UK, and other countries.
(12) In 1960, American Senator George Smathers
suggested that the U.S. launch “a false attack made on Guantanamo Bay
which would give us the excuse of actually fomenting a fight which would
then give us the excuse to go in and [overthrow Castro]“.
(13) Official State Department documents show
that, in 1961, the head of the Joint Chiefs and other high-level
officials discussed blowing up a consulate in the Dominican Republic in
order to justify an invasion of that country. The plans were not carried
out, but they were all discussed as serious proposals.
(14) As admitted by the U.S. government,
recently declassified documents show that in 1962, the American Joint
Chiefs of Staff signed off on a plan to blow up AMERICAN airplanes
(using an elaborate plan involving the switching of airplanes), and also
to commit terrorist acts on American soil, and then to blame it on the
Cubans in order to justify an invasion of Cuba. See the following ABC
news report; the official documents; and watch this interview with the
former Washington Investigative Producer for ABC’s World News Tonight
with Peter Jennings.
(15) In 1963, the U.S. Department of Defense
wrote a paper promoting attacks on nations within the Organization of
American States – such as Trinidad-Tobago or Jamaica – and then falsely
blaming them on Cuba.
(16) The U.S. Department of Defense even
suggested covertly paying a person in the Castro government to attack
the United States: “The only area remaining for consideration then would
be to bribe one of Castro’s subordinate commanders to initiate an
attack on Guantanamo.”
(17) The NSA admits that it lied about what
really happened in the Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1964 … manipulating
data to make it look like North Vietnamese boats fired on a U.S. ship so
as to create a false justification for the Vietnam war.
(18) A U.S. Congressional committee admitted
that – as part of its “Cointelpro” campaign – the FBI had used many
provocateurs in the 1950s through 1970s to carry out violent acts and
falsely blame them on political activists.
(19) A top Turkish general admitted that Turkish
forces burned down a mosque on Cyprus in the 1970s and blamed it on
their enemy. He explained: “In Special War, certain acts of sabotage are
staged and blamed on the enemy to increase public resistance. We did
this on Cyprus; we even burnt down a mosque.” In response to the
surprised correspondent’s incredulous look the general said, “I am
giving an example”.
(20) The German government admitted (and see
this) that, in 1978, the German secret service detonated a bomb in the
outer wall of a prison and planted “escape tools” on a prisoner – a
member of the Red Army Faction – which the secret service wished to
frame the bombing on.
(21) A Mossad agent admits that, in 1984, Mossad
planted a radio transmitter in Gaddaffi’s compound in Tripoli, Libya
which broadcast fake terrorist trasmissions recorded by Mossad, in order
to frame Gaddaffi as a terrorist supporter. Ronald Reagan bombed Libya
immediately thereafter.
(22) The South African Truth and Reconciliation
Council found that, in 1989, the Civil Cooperation Bureau (a covert
branch of the South African Defense Force) approached an explosives
expert and asked him “to participate in an operation aimed at
discrediting the ANC [the African National Congress] by bombing the
police vehicle of the investigating officer into the murder incident”,
thus framing the ANC for the bombing.
(23) An Algerian diplomat and several officers
in the Algerian army admit that, in the 1990s, the Algerian army
frequently massacred Algerian civilians and then blamed Islamic
militants for the killings (and see this video; and Agence
France-Presse, 9/27/2002, French Court Dismisses Algerian Defamation
Suit Against Author).
(24) An Indonesian fact-finding team
investigated violent riots which occurred in 1998, and determined that
“elements of the military had been involved in the riots, some of which
were deliberately provoked”.
(25) Senior Russian Senior military and
intelligence officers admit that the KGB blew up Russian apartment
buildings in 1999 and falsely blamed it on Chechens, in order to justify
an invasion of Chechnya (and see this report and this discussion).
(26) According to the Washington Post,
Indonesian police admit that the Indonesian military killed American
teachers in Papua in 2002 and blamed the murders on a Papuan separatist
group in order to get that group listed as a terrorist organization.
(27) The well-respected former Indonesian president also admits that the government probably had a role in the Bali bombings.
(28) As reported by BBC, the New York Times, and
Associated Press, Macedonian officials admit that the government
murdered 7 innocent immigrants in cold blood and pretended that they
were Al Qaeda soldiers attempting to assassinate Macedonian police, in
order to join the “war on terror”.
(29) Senior police officials in Genoa, Italy
admitted that – in July 2001, at the G8 summit in Genoa – planted two
Molotov cocktails and faked the stabbing of a police officer, in order
to justify a violent crackdown against protesters.
(30) Although the FBI now admits that the 2001
anthrax attacks were carried out by one or more U.S. government
scientists, a senior FBI official says that the FBI was actually told to
blame the Anthrax attacks on Al Qaeda by White House officials
(remember what the anthrax letters looked like). Government officials
also confirm that the white House tried to link the anthrax to Iraq as a
justification for regime change in that country.
(31) Similarly, the U.S. falsely blamed Iraq
for playing a role in the 9/11 attacks – as shown by a memo from the
defense secretary – as one of the main justifications for launching the
Iraq war. Even after the 9/11 Commission admitted that there was no
connection, Dick Cheney said that the evidence is “overwhelming” that al
Qaeda had a relationship with Saddam Hussein’s regime, that Cheney
“probably” had information unavailable to the Commission, and that the
media was not ‘doing their homework’ in reporting such ties. Top U.S.
government officials now admit that the Iraq war was really launched for
oil … not 9/11 or weapons of mass destruction (despite previous “lone
wolf” claims, many U.S. government officials now say that 9/11 was
state-sponsored terror; but Iraq was not the state which backed the
hijackers).
(32) Former Department of Justice lawyer John
Yoo suggested in 2005 that the US should go on the offensive against
al-Qaeda, having “our intelligence agencies create a false terrorist
organization. It could have its own websites, recruitment centers,
training camps, and fundraising operations. It could launch fake
terrorist operations and claim credit for real terrorist strikes,
helping to sow confusion within al-Qaeda’s ranks, causing operatives to
doubt others’ identities and to question the validity of
communications.”
(33) United Press International reported in June 2005:
U.S. intelligence officers are reporting that
some of the insurgents in Iraq are using recent-model Beretta 92
pistols, but the pistols seem to have had their serial numbers erased.
The numbers do not appear to have been physically removed; the pistols
seem to have come off a production line without any serial numbers.
Analysts suggest the lack of serial numbers indicates that the weapons
were intended for intelligence operations or terrorist cells with
substantial government backing. Analysts speculate that these guns are
probably from either Mossad or the CIA. Analysts speculate that agent
provocateurs may be using the untraceable weapons even as U.S.
authorities use insurgent attacks against civilians as evidence of the
illegitimacy of the resistance.
(34) Undercover Israeli soldiers admitted in
2005 to throwing stones at other Israeli soldiers so they could blame it
on Palestinians, as an excuse to crack down on peaceful protests by the
Palestinians.
(35) Quebec police admitted that, in 2007, thugs
carrying rocks to a peaceful protest were actually undercover Quebec
police officers (and see this).
(36) At the G20 protests in London in 2009, a
British member of parliament saw plain clothes police officers
attempting to incite the crowd to violence.
(37) Egyptian politicians admitted (and see
this) that government employees looted priceless museum artifacts in
2011 to try to discredit the protesters.
(38) A Colombian army colonel has admitted that
his unit murdered 57 civilians, then dressed them in uniforms and
claimed they were rebels killed in combat.
(39) The highly-respected writer for the
Telegraph Ambrose Evans-Pritchard says that the head of Saudi
intelligence – Prince Bandar – recently admitted that the Saudi
government controls “Chechen” terrorists.
(40) High-level American sources admitted that
the Turkish government – a fellow NATO country – carried out the
chemical weapons attacks blamed on the Syrian government; and
high-ranking Turkish government admitted on tape plans to carry out
attacks and blame it on the Syrian government.
(41) The former Ukrainian security chief admits
that the sniper attacks which started the Ukrainian coup were carried
out in order to frame others.
(42) Britain’s spy agency has admitted (and see
this) that it carries out “digital false flag” attacks on targets,
framing people by writing offensive or unlawful material … and blaming
it on the target.
In addition, two-thirds of the City of Rome
burned down in a huge fire on July 19, 64 A.D. The Roman people blamed
the Emperor Nero for starting the fire. Some top Roman leaders –
including the Roman consul Cassius Dio, as well as historians like
Suetonius – agreed that Nero started the fire (based largely on the fact
that the Roman Senate had just rejected Nero’s application to clear 300
acres in Rome so that he could build a palatial complex, and that the
fire allowed him to build his complex). Regardless of who actually
started the fire, Nero – in the face of public opinion accusing him of
arson – falsely blamed the Christians for starting the fire. He then
rounded up and brutally tortured and murdered scores of Christians for
something they likely didn’t do.
We didn’t include this in the list above,
because – if Nero did start the fire on purpose – he did it for his own
reasons (to build his palatial complex), and not for geopolitical
reasons benefiting his nation.
So Common … There’s a Name for It
So Common … There’s a Name for It
The use of the bully’s trick is so common that it was given a name hundreds of years ago.
“False flag terrorism” is defined as a
government attacking its own people, then blaming others in order to
justify going to war against the people it blames. Or as Wikipedia
defines it:
False flag operations are covert operations
conducted by governments, corporations, or other organizations, which
are designed to appear as if they are being carried out by other
entities. The name is derived from the military concept of flying false
colors; that is, flying the flag of a country other than one’s own.
False flag operations are not limited to war and counter-insurgency
operations, and have been used in peace-time; for example, during
Italy’s strategy of tension.
The term comes from the old days of wooden
ships, when one ship would hang the flag of its enemy before attacking
another ship. Because the enemy’s flag, instead of the flag of the real
country of the attacking ship, was hung, it was called a “false flag”
attack.
Indeed, this concept is so well-accepted that
rules of engagement for naval, air and land warfare all prohibit false
flag attacks.
Leaders Throughout History Have Acknowledged False Flags
Leaders throughout history have acknowledged the danger of false flags:
“A history of false flag attacks used to
manipulate the minds of the people! “In individuals, insanity is rare;
but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule.”
― Friedrich Nietzsche
“Terrorism is the best political weapon for nothing drives people harder than a fear of sudden death”.
– Adolph Hitler
“Why of course the people don’t want war … But
after all it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy, and
it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a
democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist
dictatorship … Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to
the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell
them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of
patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any
country.”
– Hermann Goering, Nazi leader.
“The easiest way to gain control of a population
is to carry out acts of terror. [The public] will clamor for such laws
if their personal security is threatened”.
– Josef Stalin
P.S. There are more: Hotel King David in Jerusalem 1946, Lavon Affair 1954, USS Liberty in 1967...
mercoledì 11 novembre 2015
The Deep State: The US Unelected Shadow Government
The Deep State: The Unelected Shadow Government Is Here To Stay
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/10/2015 23:00 -0500“Behind the ostensible government sits enthroned an invisible government, owing no allegiance and acknowledging no responsibility to the people.” ? Theodore RooseveltAmerica’s next president will inherit more than a bitterly divided nation teetering on the brink of financial catastrophe when he or she assumes office. He will also inherit a shadow government, one that is fully operational and staffed by unelected officials who are, in essence, running the country.
To be precise, however, the future president will actually inherit not one but two shadow governments.
The first shadow government, referred to as COG or continuity of government, is made up of unelected individuals who have been appointed to run the government in the event of a “catastrophe.”The first shadow government, COG, is a phantom menace waiting for the right circumstances—a terrorist attack, a natural disaster, an economic meltdown—to bring it out of the shadows, where it operates even now. When and if COG takes over, the police state will transition to martial law.
The second shadow government, referred to as the Deep State, is comprised of unelected government bureaucrats, corporations, contractors, paper-pushers, and button-pushers who are actually calling the shots behind the scenes right now.
Yet as I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, it is the second shadow government, the Deep State, which poses the greater threat to our freedoms. This permanent, corporatized, militarized, entrenched bureaucracy is unaffected by elections, unaltered by populist movements, and beyond the reach of the law.
This is the hidden face of the police state.
These two shadow governments, which make a mockery of representative government and the “reassurance ritual” of voting, have been a long time in the making. Yet they have been so shrouded in secrecy, well hidden from the eyes and ears of the American people, that they exist and function in contravention to the principles of democratic government.
As the following makes clear, these shadow governments, which operate beyond the reach of the Constitution and with no real accountability to the citizenry, are the reason why “we the people” have no control over our government.
The COG shadow government plan was devised during the Cold War as a means of ensuring that a nuclear strike didn’t paralyze the federal government.
COG initially called for three teams consisting of a cabinet member, an executive chief of staff and military and intelligence officials to practice evacuating and directing a counter nuclear strike against the Soviet Union from a variety of high-tech, mobile command vehicles. If the president and vice president were both killed, one of these teams would take control, with the ranking cabinet official serving as president.
This all changed after the attacks of September 11, 2001, when it became clear that there would be no warning against a terrorist attack. Instead of waiting until an attack occurred to mobilize part-time bureaucrats and activate evacuation schemes, George W. Bush opted to change COG and establish a full-time, permanent shadow government, stationed outside the capital, run by permanently appointed (not elected) executive officials.
COG has since taken on a power—and a budget—of its own.
Incredibly, under the Obama administration, the plans for the shadow government have expanded and grown far more elaborate and costly than many realize. It is what investigative journalist William M. Arkin refers to as “the latest manifestation of an obsession with government survival.”
In much the same way that the nation was taken hostage after 9/11 by color-coded terror alerts and “See Something, Say Something” campaigns that transformed us into a fearful, watchful nation of suspects, the government’s efforts to prepare us for a so-called national disaster have, in turn, left us a constant state of near-emergency and acclimated us to the sight of militarized police, military drills on American soil, privatized prisons, the specter of internment camps, and the erosion of constitutional rights, especially as they pertain to so-called “extremists,” domestic or otherwise.
Study the COG plans carefully, however, and you’ll find that the concern isn’t so much about protecting our government as it is about protecting the nation’s governmental elite.
As Arkin reports: “Countless billions have been spent on this endeavor over the years, a secret orgy of preparedness going on behind the scenes, one that ensures Washington can defend itself, take care of its own, and survive no matter what.”
To this end, the government has invested heavily in the “architecture of fear”: massive underground bunkers—the size of small cities—which are sprinkled throughout the country for the government elite to escape to “in case of an imminent nuclear strike so that they can set up a kind of Administration-in-exile, directing every order of business from retaliation to recovery.”
These bunkers, strategically located around the nation’s capital and in key states, represent a who’s who on the shadow government’s payroll, with every department and agency represented, from the Department of Education and the Trademark Office to the Small Business Administration and the National Archives.
No sector has been overlooked: military, surveillance, counterintelligence, scientific, political, judicial, corporate contractors, as well as computer programmers, engineers, fire fighters, craftsmen, security guards, branch chiefs, financial managers, supply officers, secretaries and stenographers, all of whom have been entrusted with special ID cards allowing them clearance into the doomsday survival sites. They’ve even included individuals tasked with patent and trademark processing. They even have contingency plans to save priceless works of art.
The Federal Relocation Arc near Washington DC will reportedly serve as the emergency bunker for “every Cabinet department (and every government organization deemed essential).” Site R, a 700,000-foot facility inside Raven Rock Mountain near Camp David, will serve as a backup Pentagon. Peters Mountain near Charlottesville, Va., is the likely site for the nation’s domestic spies to hide out. Congress will retire to a subterranean facility near the posh Greenbrier resort in West Virginia, which served as an internment facility for Japanese, Italian and German diplomats during World War II. And a 600,000-square-foot complex inside Virginia’s Mount Weather is expected to be the primary relocation site for the White House, the Supreme Court and much of the executive branch.
Built into the side of a mountain, Mount Weather, near Bluemont, Va., is staffed 24 hours a day, seven days a week. This self-contained facility contains, among other things, a hospital, crematorium, dining and recreation areas, sleeping quarters, reservoirs of drinking and cooling water, an emergency power plant, a radio/television studio and a full-time police and fire department.
There is also an Office of the Presidency at Mount Weather, which regularly receives top-secret national security information from all the federal departments and agencies. This facility was largely unknown to everyone, including Congress, until it came to light in the mid-1970s. Military personnel connected to the bunker have refused to reveal any information about it, even before congressional committees. In fact, Congress has no oversight, budgetary or otherwise, on Mount Weather, and the specifics of the facility remain top-secret.
These facilities reinforce a troubling government mindset that treats the American people as relatively insignificant and expendable. Because you know who’s not on the list of key-individuals-to-be-saved-in-the-eventuality-of-a-disaster? You and me and every other American citizen who is viewed as a mere economic unit to be tallied, bought and sold by those in power.
Not to worry, however. The government hasn’t completely forgotten about us.
In the event of a “national emergency”—loosely defined as “any incident, regardless of location, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the U.S. population, infrastructure, environment, economy, or government functions”—the executive branch and its unelected appointees will be given unchecked executive, legislative and judicial power.
In such an event, the Constitution will effectively be suspended, thereby ushering in martial law.
However, writing for Radar magazine, Christopher Ketcham suggests that the government won’t have completely forgotten about the rest of us. In fact, Ketcham believes that the government also has plans to imprison hundreds of thousands of “potentially suspect” Americans in detention camps.
Ketcham describes a program created by the Department of Homeland Security that relies on a database of Americans who might be considered potential threats in the event of a national emergency. Referred to by the code name Main Core, this database reportedly contains the names of millions of Americans who, “often for the slightest and most trivial reason, are considered unfriendly, and who, in a time of panic, might be incarcerated. The database can identify and locate perceived ‘enemies of the state’ almost instantaneously.”
Sounds unnervingly like the objectives of the government’s new Domestic Terrorism Czar and the Strong Cities network, which will be working to identify and target potential extremists, doesn’t it?
Under Ketcham's scenario, if a terrorist attack occurs, the president will declare a national emergency, activating COG procedures and throwing the country into martial law with the shadow government at the helm. The administration will then round up the “dangerous” Americans listed in Main Core and place them in one of the many internment camps or private prisons built for just such an eventuality.
For all intents and purposes, the nation is one national “emergency” away from having a full-fledged, unelected, authoritarian state emerge from the shadows. All it will take is the right event—another terrorist attack, perhaps, or a natural disaster—for such a regime to emerge from the shadows.
As unnerving as that prospect may be, however, it is the second shadow government, what former congressional staffer Mike Lofgren refers to as “the Deep State, which operates according to its own compass heading regardless of who is formally in power,” that poses the greater threat right now.
Consider this: how is it that partisan gridlock has seemingly jammed up the gears (and funding sources) in Washington, yet the government has been unhindered in its ability to wage endless wars abroad, in the process turning America into a battlefield and its citizens into enemy combatants?
The credit for such relentless, entrenched, profit-driven governance, according to Lofgren, goes to “another government concealed behind the one that is visible at either end of Pennsylvania Avenue, a hybrid entity of public and private institutions ruling the country according to consistent patterns in season and out, connected to, but only intermittently controlled by, the visible state whose leaders we choose.”
This “state within a state” hides “mostly in plain sight, and its operators mainly act in the light of day,” says Lofgren, and yet the “Deep State does not consist of the entire government.”
Rather, Lofgren continues:
It is a hybrid of national security and law enforcement agencies: the Department of Defense, the Department of State, the Department of Homeland Security, the Central Intelligence Agency and the Justice Department. I also include the Department of the Treasury because of its jurisdiction over financial flows, its enforcement of international sanctions and its organic symbiosis with Wall Street.In an expose titled “Top Secret America,” The Washington Post revealed the private side of this shadow government, made up of 854,000 contract personnel with top-secret clearances, “a number greater than that of top-secret-cleared civilian employees of the government.”
All these agencies are coordinated by the Executive Office of the President via the National Security Council. Certain key areas of the judiciary belong to the Deep State, such as the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, whose actions are mysterious even to most members of Congress. Also included are a handful of vital federal trial courts, such as the Eastern District of Virginia and the Southern District of Manhattan, where sensitive proceedings in national security cases are conducted.
The final government component (and possibly last in precedence among the formal branches of government established by the Constitution) is a kind of rump Congress consisting of the congressional leadership and some (but not all) of the members of the defense and intelligence committees. The rest of Congress, normally so fractious and partisan, is mostly only intermittently aware of the Deep State and when required usually submits to a few well-chosen words from the State’s emissaries.
Reporting on the Post’s findings, Lofgren points out:
These contractors now set the political and social tone of Washington, just as they are increasingly setting the direction of the country, but they are doing it quietly, their doings unrecorded in the Congressional Record or the Federal Register, and are rarely subject to congressional hearings…The Deep State not only holds the nation’s capital in thrall, but it also controls Wall Street (“which supplies the cash that keeps the political machine quiescent and operating as a diversionary marionette theater”) and Silicon Valley.
As Lofgren concludes:
[T]he Deep State is so heavily entrenched, so well protected by surveillance, firepower, money and its ability to co-opt resistance that it is almost impervious to change… If there is anything the Deep State requires it is silent, uninterrupted cash flow and the confidence that things will go on as they have in the past. It is even willing to tolerate a degree of gridlock: Partisan mud wrestling over cultural issues may be a useful distraction from its agenda.Remember this the next time you find yourselves mesmerized by the antics of the 2016 presidential candidates or drawn into a politicized debate over the machinations of Congress, the president or the judiciary: it’s all intended to distract you from the fact that you have no authority and no rights in the face of the shadow governments.
mercoledì 4 novembre 2015
Secret Inventions on the Rise
Secrecy News
Secret Inventions on the Rise
There were 5,579 invention secrecy orders in effect
at the end of fiscal year 2015. This was an increase from 5,520 the
year before and is the highest number of such secrecy orders in more
than a decade.
Under the Invention Secrecy Act of 1951, secrecy orders may be imposed on patent applications when a government agency finds that granting the patent and publishing it would be “detrimental” to national security.
Most of the current invention secrecy orders were renewals of orders granted in past years. According to statistics released under the Freedom of Information Act by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, there were 95 new secrecy orders imposed last year, while 36 prior orders were rescinded. More information on the newly rescinded orders is forthcoming.
Of the 95 new orders, 15 were so-called “John Doe” secrecy orders, meaning that they were imposed on private inventors in cases where the government had no property claim on the invention. The prohibition on disclosure in such cases therefore raises potential First Amendment issues.
Under the Invention Secrecy Act of 1951, secrecy orders may be imposed on patent applications when a government agency finds that granting the patent and publishing it would be “detrimental” to national security.
Most of the current invention secrecy orders were renewals of orders granted in past years. According to statistics released under the Freedom of Information Act by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, there were 95 new secrecy orders imposed last year, while 36 prior orders were rescinded. More information on the newly rescinded orders is forthcoming.
Of the 95 new orders, 15 were so-called “John Doe” secrecy orders, meaning that they were imposed on private inventors in cases where the government had no property claim on the invention. The prohibition on disclosure in such cases therefore raises potential First Amendment issues.
mercoledì 28 ottobre 2015
The mainstreaming of technological abundance thinking
The mainstreaming of technological abundance thinking
Part of the Beyond Scarcity series
FT Alphaville started its “beyond scarcity” series in June 2012, having explored the core tenets of technological abundance theory and utopianism from about February 2012
onwards — influenced at the time by the thinking of Kurzweil,
Diamandis, Brynjolfsson and a whole bunch of technological utopians who
had come before.
Fundamentally, it was our way of going against the grain at a time when markets were still overly obsessing about the causes and side-effects of the global financial crisis, the Eurozone crisis, the subprime banking crisis and in general maintaining a “glass half-full” outlook on growth and the global economy.
It seemed to us that the bearish take was completely overlooking the innovation going on around us. So we thought, time to give these technological utopians a platform. Perhaps they do have a point?
Not that the FT Alphaville readership bought into the ideas. Here’s a selection of reader comments from back then on everything from the rise of the de-monetised sharing economy and whether it represents real growth, to having robots do all the work in a leisure economy:
Well, it’s now October 2015, and things have changed a lot.
Techno-utopianism is no longer the fringe view of some wildly over-optimistic guys at MIT. In the last two years, techno abundance has become a core investment thesis, rivalling that of the rise of the Chinese consumer before the crisis. Every analyst or consulting team worth their salt has issued research on “the great disruption” to come — from IoT, AI, and autonomous cars to the sharing economy. The effect has been to legitimise ideas once considered far-fetched or over-hyped, mainstreaming them to the point that it’s simply taken for granted that these things will be universally deployed, that they will work perfectly, and that even if they will be greatly disruptive in the roll-out stage overall they will be a positive force for everyone with little to no ill-effects.
Here’s the latest example of that thinking by way of Independent Strategy (our emphasis):
Here’s the opposing view: the moment we start convincing ourselves that nothing is something, squeezed capacity is everything and all reserve wealth is wasteful is probably the moment to ask cui bono from that line of thinking? Who benefits from a world where the barriers to entry are so high in terms of adding new capacity, it actually impedes qualitative competition.
Critical thinking, it seems to us, is in short supply these days. And we’re putting a helluva lot more trust in the technologists than in the bankers.
AI experts who warn about the dangers of opening Pandora’s AI box are an inconvenience, as are those who warn real AI is — as it has always been — still decades away. Fintech is universally touted as something guaranteed to free everyone from the clutches of an established banking elite, not a means to bind us to a new technocratic elite within a panopticon state. And no-one questions what the long term consequences of reducing the concept of a consumer surplus, not to mention society’s right to strive for such a thing, as a wasteful inconvenience may be. The future they tell us is about full capacity utilisation, the end of private ownership (albeit without a public ownership option, weird eh?), total transparency and putting our trust in algorithms instead of people.
No mention of the fact that algorithms don’t always work, need constant updating, supervision, programming and debugging, are prone to hacking, cyber crime and other forms of abuse — and that every IT-based system still requires the resources of real people, real energy and real materials to keep it ticking over. Or that manipulating wants and needs to keep them in check with available resources isn’t quite the same thing as delivering a consumer surplus into everyone’s hands.
Last of all, if information abundance sees us knowing the price of everything but the value of nothing, is there actually the risk that instead of ending up with an abundance of quality goods (as Independent Strategy suggests) we end up with the exact opposite, an oversupply of lemons – as per the famous George Akerlof paper which argues that low-prices drive away sellers with high-quality goods — because a technocratically efficient world doesn’t really allow sellers to sell anything else and arguably destroys markets rather than creates them.
Does too much information efficiency eventually discourage high-quality good investment altogether? And what about the long-term side-effect of cramming the world with too much information? Does this create a paradox which — lacking penalty costs for bad information — encourages it to be crammed with low-quality or purposefully misleading information which eventually collapses the perfect information state?
Regarding incentives, we know that corporations have been substituting capex for share buybacks — something which makes perfect sense in an environment where managers can’t guarantee that expected returns will exceed the cost of capital.
Where capex is forthcoming, meanwhile, it is increasingly being focused on investments in high-tech equipment, software and various kinds of intellectual property geared to maximise existing output not to add to it or those not valued by current GDP estimates like databases, staff training, business process improvement and restructuring.
As this recent McKinsey report on share buybacks and growth noted:
Which, perhaps, is fine in mature economies with plenty of access to high-grade facilities, infrastructure, goods and shelter — providing enough capex is dedicated to maintenance so that quality can be persistently assured — but not so fine in economies which still lack basic infrastructure or access to base material goods.
Furthermore, even in mature economies, if the consequence is perpetual downsizing, capital drawdown, the growing prevalence of low-quality utilitarian goods and the increasing disappearance of quality goods from the market — because there’s simply no incentive to invest if the surplus returns are information arbitraged away, does that really equate to the capitalist promise of American prosperity for all? Or does it empower only those who had the luck and fortitude to be endowed with capital assets in the system before the information age came upon us?
As Stiglitz once wrote, it may just be that the economy, in effect, has to choose between two different imperfections: imperfections of information or imperfections of competition.
If that’s true, perfect information — a.k.a our modern ability for everyone to know what’s inside everyone else’s head at near zero cost –for all the benefits it brings also empowers monopolists and oligopolists by making it too costly for anyone other than a vested interest from investing in more production. But that’s not abundance, that’s gaming.
Fundamentally, it was our way of going against the grain at a time when markets were still overly obsessing about the causes and side-effects of the global financial crisis, the Eurozone crisis, the subprime banking crisis and in general maintaining a “glass half-full” outlook on growth and the global economy.
It seemed to us that the bearish take was completely overlooking the innovation going on around us. So we thought, time to give these technological utopians a platform. Perhaps they do have a point?
Not that the FT Alphaville readership bought into the ideas. Here’s a selection of reader comments from back then on everything from the rise of the de-monetised sharing economy and whether it represents real growth, to having robots do all the work in a leisure economy:
Uh huh, said Buckminister Fuller, the dude who worked for a living. Well, if he thinks we should all quit and navel gaze I guess we should. Will Waitrose give me food for free? Will the cows milk themselves? Man, some of this stuff is so hippy-dippy. We should organise an FT Alphaville drum circle.Reassuringly realistic. And constantly keeping us in check. (For that, a thank you.)
–
Also this goes back to the point about the difference between value and utility. Value is a function of scarcity, utility is not. GDP measures value not utility. If something is not scarce no matter who useful it is (eg water) than it’s value will be low. So things like information (which are public goods, and have little or no scarcity value – other than that created by intellectual property rights), despite their high utility often have no value.
–
Doing the same things with less inputs is growth, nobody should dispute that. But sharing and collaboration are different, and there’s nothing new about either of them. Hotels, taxis, apartment buildings, office buildings, airplanes, power grids, all examples of sharing. Corporations, governments, clubs, IPOs all examples of collaboration. The internet is enabling new, sometimes more efficient ways of sharing and collaborating, which do represent some, generally modest growth. There is no new, separate “collaborative economy”.
Hah, as I’ve been saying, centrally imposed negative rates lead to barter, avoidance of use of currencies. It could seem as a good thing locally, but it ain’t, on an international scale since it reduces world trade. Be careful, what you wish for. This is a disaster, INTERNATIONALLY.
Well, it’s now October 2015, and things have changed a lot.
Techno-utopianism is no longer the fringe view of some wildly over-optimistic guys at MIT. In the last two years, techno abundance has become a core investment thesis, rivalling that of the rise of the Chinese consumer before the crisis. Every analyst or consulting team worth their salt has issued research on “the great disruption” to come — from IoT, AI, and autonomous cars to the sharing economy. The effect has been to legitimise ideas once considered far-fetched or over-hyped, mainstreaming them to the point that it’s simply taken for granted that these things will be universally deployed, that they will work perfectly, and that even if they will be greatly disruptive in the roll-out stage overall they will be a positive force for everyone with little to no ill-effects.
Here’s the latest example of that thinking by way of Independent Strategy (our emphasis):
Artificial intelligence (AI) will vastly reduce the cost of making things, as AI is cheaper than even the cheapest labour and unbelievably more productive. Unlike previous technological waves, it affects services as much as manufacturing… It threatens 45% of DM jobs and deprives EMs of their major comparative advantage: cheap labour for manufactured products or low-cost commodities and energy.That’s the new techno-utopian investment narrative in a nutshell: rising inequality doesn’t really matter because the future of wealth is all about intangible consumption and full capacity utilisation, meaning who cares who funds or owns the asset — we’re all long-term beneficiaries of the newly maximised efficient order. Even if Peter Thiel, Elon Musk and Larry Page don’t have a tendency to rent out their spare mansion capacity on AirBnb.
How the AI supply-side gain is matched by demand is undecided, but crucial; making things for virtually nothing still needs people with earnings and assets to buy them. The income and wealth distribution effects of AI are a major political challenge. The AI impact on the current recovery is still gradual. It will become disruptive. But not yet. The human cloud is already a significant example of the economy of sharing — but on the supply side. Here people do bespoke piecework online and gather ratings based on the quality of their output. It is an unmeasured source of job creation that transforms individuals into businesses, lowers the cost of production and increases the flexibility of labour markets (no minimum wage, nor work place regulation nor hiring and firing restrictions).
There are many other such technologies at work such as Big Data, shared (anonymised) medical data and diagnostics, the internet of things etc. But the common denominator is that they all destroy existing systems and replace them with new ones. They are all “intangibles”. And whereas they will impact the production of things, their real value-added is derived from their intangible nature. At a guess, they will:
• Increase living standards by lowering costs and improving quality. Even at stable income levels, living standards will rise.
• Make economic growth less dependent upon capital and raw material inputs. Weak gross fixed capital formation alongside booming R&D spending in the US highlights this shift.
Disruptive technologies will improve the quality of life. A bigger slice of economic life will be intangible. That uses less material inputs (the major desecrators of the planet) and uses them more efficiently. As an example, if one-third of food production currently wasted globally were distributed efficiently, one-third of crop land could be returned to the wilderness for our children. And that’s before counting the production gains per acre of crop land from advancing agricultural technology.
Here’s the opposing view: the moment we start convincing ourselves that nothing is something, squeezed capacity is everything and all reserve wealth is wasteful is probably the moment to ask cui bono from that line of thinking? Who benefits from a world where the barriers to entry are so high in terms of adding new capacity, it actually impedes qualitative competition.
Critical thinking, it seems to us, is in short supply these days. And we’re putting a helluva lot more trust in the technologists than in the bankers.
AI experts who warn about the dangers of opening Pandora’s AI box are an inconvenience, as are those who warn real AI is — as it has always been — still decades away. Fintech is universally touted as something guaranteed to free everyone from the clutches of an established banking elite, not a means to bind us to a new technocratic elite within a panopticon state. And no-one questions what the long term consequences of reducing the concept of a consumer surplus, not to mention society’s right to strive for such a thing, as a wasteful inconvenience may be. The future they tell us is about full capacity utilisation, the end of private ownership (albeit without a public ownership option, weird eh?), total transparency and putting our trust in algorithms instead of people.
No mention of the fact that algorithms don’t always work, need constant updating, supervision, programming and debugging, are prone to hacking, cyber crime and other forms of abuse — and that every IT-based system still requires the resources of real people, real energy and real materials to keep it ticking over. Or that manipulating wants and needs to keep them in check with available resources isn’t quite the same thing as delivering a consumer surplus into everyone’s hands.
Last of all, if information abundance sees us knowing the price of everything but the value of nothing, is there actually the risk that instead of ending up with an abundance of quality goods (as Independent Strategy suggests) we end up with the exact opposite, an oversupply of lemons – as per the famous George Akerlof paper which argues that low-prices drive away sellers with high-quality goods — because a technocratically efficient world doesn’t really allow sellers to sell anything else and arguably destroys markets rather than creates them.
Does too much information efficiency eventually discourage high-quality good investment altogether? And what about the long-term side-effect of cramming the world with too much information? Does this create a paradox which — lacking penalty costs for bad information — encourages it to be crammed with low-quality or purposefully misleading information which eventually collapses the perfect information state?
Regarding incentives, we know that corporations have been substituting capex for share buybacks — something which makes perfect sense in an environment where managers can’t guarantee that expected returns will exceed the cost of capital.
Where capex is forthcoming, meanwhile, it is increasingly being focused on investments in high-tech equipment, software and various kinds of intellectual property geared to maximise existing output not to add to it or those not valued by current GDP estimates like databases, staff training, business process improvement and restructuring.
As this recent McKinsey report on share buybacks and growth noted:
…since a company’s rate of growth and returns on capital determine how much it needs to invest, these and other high-return enterprises can invest less capital and still achieve the same profit growth as companies with lower returns.It pays to invest in IP and information resources rather than industrial capacity because this way existing capital can be maximised — stretching what we’ve already got to go further rather than investing more — in a way that increases returns on existing stock whilst entrenching the oligopolistic/monopolistic power of the most information-efficient organisations.
Which, perhaps, is fine in mature economies with plenty of access to high-grade facilities, infrastructure, goods and shelter — providing enough capex is dedicated to maintenance so that quality can be persistently assured — but not so fine in economies which still lack basic infrastructure or access to base material goods.
Furthermore, even in mature economies, if the consequence is perpetual downsizing, capital drawdown, the growing prevalence of low-quality utilitarian goods and the increasing disappearance of quality goods from the market — because there’s simply no incentive to invest if the surplus returns are information arbitraged away, does that really equate to the capitalist promise of American prosperity for all? Or does it empower only those who had the luck and fortitude to be endowed with capital assets in the system before the information age came upon us?
As Stiglitz once wrote, it may just be that the economy, in effect, has to choose between two different imperfections: imperfections of information or imperfections of competition.
If that’s true, perfect information — a.k.a our modern ability for everyone to know what’s inside everyone else’s head at near zero cost –for all the benefits it brings also empowers monopolists and oligopolists by making it too costly for anyone other than a vested interest from investing in more production. But that’s not abundance, that’s gaming.
- The parable of water
- The end of artificial scarcity
- Redefining labour
- Beyond GDP and the rise of the non-monetised economy
- Robots, China and demographics
- The evolution of luxury markets
- Counterintuitive insights that are only now making the mainstream now
- Time to take basic income seriously?
- On what really is different this time around
- Inflationistas and the global supply shock
- The SME demand-side problem
- What is the value of unique?
- World War Zirp
- Sugar as the new tobacco?
- Where art thou inflation?
- Google, defender of the universe
- The gamification of the economy: creating rivalry where there is none
- Behold the new, new economy?
- Information asymmetry, bad incentives and Taibbi
- Larry Summers on forwarding the Doozer economy
- Let there be bubbles!
- Secular stagnation and the paradox of worth
- The new Hanseatica, now with robot dogs
- L'embarras de richesses, crude oil edition
- Disrupting FREEDOM!
- Productivity polarisation in our 'Modern Times'
- Those incredible dropping repo rates
- Modelling the singularity
- The digital retail economy's Achilles heel
- "You see, money doesn't exist in the 24th century"
- The mainstreaming of technological abundance thinking
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